Download e-book for kindle: AIDS Epidemiology: A Quantitative Approach (Monographs in by Ron Brookmeyer (Author), Mitchell H. Gail (Author)

By Ron Brookmeyer (Author), Mitchell H. Gail (Author)

ISBN-10: 0195076419

ISBN-13: 9780195076417

ISBN-10: 1423763548

ISBN-13: 9781423763543

AIDS has seemed in additional than a hundred thirty nations, and over 100,000 circumstances of AIDS were stated within the U.S. on my own. a growing number of, the general public may be looking on statisticians to supply solutions concerning the destiny process this epidemic. This accomplished paintings confronts the issues which are distinctive to AIDS study and unites them less than a unmarried conceptual framework. It makes a speciality of tools for the layout and research of epidemiologic stories, the traditional heritage of AIDS and the transmission of HIV, tools for monitoring and projecting the process the epidemic, and statistical matters in healing trials. some of the tools of tracking and forecasting this ailment obtain finished remedy. those tools contain back-calculation, which the authors constructed; interpretation of survey info on HIV occurrence; mathematical types for HIV transmission; and methods that mix sorts of epidemiological facts. a lot of this fabric -- reminiscent of a dialogue of tools for assessing defense of the blood offer, an assessment of survey methods, and techniques to venture pediatric AIDS prevalence -- isn't really on hand in the other paintings.

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Extra info for AIDS Epidemiology: A Quantitative Approach (Monographs in Epidemiology and Biostatistics ; V. 22)

Example text

Suppose the chance that a selected partner is infected is ) • Suppose further that individual "2" engages in behaviors that produce a chance B2 of infection per partnership with an infected partner. Compared to another uninfected individual ("1") with parameters u1 B1 and (t), the relative hazard of infection is The relative hazard will vary in time unless (t) = (t). 3) becomes where y2 and y1 are the initial prevalences in cohorts i = 2 and i = 1. This relative risk increases in time if u2B2 > u1B1More generally, individuals "1" and "2" may be selecting partners from various subgroups with different HIV prevalences.

1984) identified receptive anal-genital intercourse with ejaculation and "fisting" (insertion of the hand or the fist into the partner's rectum) as important risk factors. Amyl nitrite was no longer needed in a multivariate model that included detailed information on these two sexual behaviors and cytomegalovirus titre, suggesting that the univariate associations with drug use might be an artifact of multicollinearity with risky sexual behaviors. , 1983) identified a large number of sexual partners, syphilis, and exposure to feces during sex as associated with increased risk.

Countries that have reported 1000 or more cases are also listed. Although the largest number of reported cases comes from the United States, the fraction of cumulative cases from the United States has fallen from 56% in 1989 to 49% in 1990. 2 AIDS Cases Reported to the World Health Organization as of January 1, 1991 Africa— 81,019 Burundi Congo Ivory Coast Ghana Kenya Malawi 3,305 1,940 3,647 1,732 9,139 7,160 Rwanda Uganda Tanzania Zaire Zambia Zimbabwe 3,407 17,422 7,128 11,732 3,494 5,249 Asia— 872 Americas— 188211 Brazil Canada Dominican Republic 12,504 4,427 1,423 Europe— 41,947 France Germany Italy Netherlands 9,718 5,500 7,576 1,487 Oceania— 2,562 Australia 2,295 Haiti Mexico United States Romania Spain Switzerland United Kingdom 2,456 5,113 154,791 1,055 7,047 1,548 3,884 Note: Listed countries have reported at least 1000 cases.

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AIDS Epidemiology: A Quantitative Approach (Monographs in Epidemiology and Biostatistics ; V. 22) by Ron Brookmeyer (Author), Mitchell H. Gail (Author)


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